Bigger Than the Sound guesses who will take home Sunday's biggest Moonmen.
By James Montgomery
Katy Perry
Photo: Graham Denholm/ Getty Images
The 2011 MTV Video Music Awards will air live on MTV this Sunday at 9 p.m. ET, but if you're a Katy Perry fan, well, you probably knew that already. After all, the California Gurl is the most-nominated artist at this year's VMAs, leading the pack with an eye-opening 10 nods, including Best Female Video, Best Pop Video and the biggie, Video of the Year.
Following closely behind her are the likes of Adele, Kanye West and Bruno Mars, but really, all eyes will be on Perry. Will she take home her first-ever Moonman? Will she sweep the night's major categories? And, most importantly of all, what color will her hair be?
Of course, KP's not the only story line heading into Sunday's show: Can Gaga win the only major award she's up for? Can Tyler, the Creator shock the world? Luckily, I'm here to provide answers. Much like I've done in previous years (and mostly because I have a rather insatiable gambling addiction), I'm throwing on the old prognostication cap and trying my hand at picking the winners in all the major VMA categories. Of course, while I can't guarantee my accuracy, I can promise you that I spent, like, 25 minutes on this, which is a pretty thorough investment.
Oh, and for the record, I'm going with "puce" for Katy's hair color. The rest of my picks right now:
Best Male Video
» Bruno Mars, "Grenade"
» Cee Lo Green, "F--- You"
» Eminem (featuring Rihanna), "Love the Way You Lie"
» Justin Bieber, "U Smile"
» Kanye West (featuring Rihanna and Kid Cudi), "All of the Lights"
My Take: In a year so thoroughly dominated by the ladies, I'm surprised they didn't find a way to sneak Adele or Katy Perry in here. As it stands, five worthy videos will rep for the Y chromosome, and, to be honest, each has about the same shot of winning (though it would be fitting if one of the two clips featuring Rihanna got the W).
My Pick: Whenever things are this close, always go with the old awards-show adage: "If they show up, they'll go up." I can't vouch for the Sunday night plans of Cee Lo, Em, Bieber or Kanye, but I do know Bruno will be in the house, which means he'll probably be making at least one trip to the podium. Pencil "Grenade" in as my favorite to win here.
Best Female Video
» Adele, "Rolling in the Deep"
» Beyoncé, "Run the World (Girls)"
» Katy Perry, "Firework"
» Lady Gaga, "Born This Way"
» Nicki Minaj, "Super Bass"
My Take: Almost by default, it's the night's biggest award — or at least the most hotly contested. All five females have done big things on the charts, and all five would be considered legitimate front-runners in any other year. But this is 2011 ...
My Pick: ... which means that, essentially, this is down to a three-woman contest: Adele, Katy and Gaga (in a big year for female artists, you've gotta go with the biggest of them all). I suspect Katy will triumph elsewhere, and Adele, well, she'll have the Grammys. So let's go with Gaga; it's the only major award she's up for, and if she didn't win something, the Little Monsters would riot in the streets.
Best Rock Video
» Cage the Elephant, "Shake Me Down"
» Foo Fighters, "Walk"
» Foster the People, "Pumped Up Kicks"
» Mumford & Sons, "The Cave"
» The Black Keys, "Howlin' For You"
My Take: As I was writing this, the MTV Newsroom started shaking, a residual tremor of the earthquake that hit Virginia on Tuesday afternoon. And if that isn't a sign that God isn't happy with this year's Best Rock Video noms, well, then I don't know what is.
My Pick: No pick, for fear of Divine Retribution.
Best Hip-Hop Video
» Chris Brown (featuring Lil Wayne and Busta Rhymes), "Look at Me Now"
» Kanye West (featuring Rihanna and Kid Cudi), "All of the Lights"
» Lil Wayne (featuring Cory Gunz), "6 Foot 7 Foot"
» Lupe Fiasco, "The Show Goes On"
» Nicki Minaj, "Super Bass"
My Take: Nicki's nod for "Super Bass" makes her the first female to be nominated in Best Hip-Hop Video since Mary J. Blige's "Just Fine" in 2008, which doesn't really mean much, but should still be noted. Also for the first time since 2008: Eminem will not win, since he didn't get nominated.
My Pick: I think it boils down to Weezy and Nicki, though given that fan voting will help determine the winner, you can't discount Chris Brown's chances either. In a pinch, I'll say it's Wayne, especially given everything he's got planned during — and immediately following — the VMAs.
Best Pop Video
» Adele, "Rolling in the Deep"
» Britney Spears, "Till the World Ends"
» Bruno Mars, "Grenade"
» Katy Perry, "Last Friday Night (T.G.I.F.)"
» Pitbull (featuring Ne-Yo, Afrojack and Nayer), "Give Me Everything"
My Take: Another knock-down, drag-out category, featuring three of the biggest female stars on the planet — plus Bruno Mars and Pitbull.
My Pick: Katy Perry. The coronation begins here and (quite possibly) picks up steam later in the night.
Best New Artist
» Big Sean (featuring Chris Brown), "My Last"
» Foster the People, "Pumped Up Kicks"
» Kreayshawn, "Gucci Gucci"
» Tyler, the Creator, "Yonkers"
» Wiz Khalifa, "Black and Yellow"
My Take: Perhaps the oddest assortment of BNA noms since 2004 (in which Kanye West and Maroon 5 went head-to-head with the Darkness, Jet, JoJo and Yellowcard), it's another take-your-pick tossup. So, in that case ...
My Pick: ... I'll go with Tyler, the Creator. He'll be in attendance, and they're gonna want to get him up onstage somehow. So if he doesn't win here, that only leaves ...
Video of the Year
» Adele, "Rolling in the Deep"
» Beastie Boys, "Make Some Noise"
» Bruno Mars, "Grenade"
» Katy Perry, "Firework"
» Tyler, the Creator, "Yonkers"
My Take: The night's biggest award and one that can go two ways. Either voters keep with recent history (the last four winners: Gaga, Beyoncé, Britney Spears and Rihanna) or they decide this is the year to shake things up (see: 2006's Panic! at the Disco triumph). Which way will they go? You may be surprised.
My Pick: Much like when I sorta called Arcade Fire's shocking Album of the Year win at the Grammys earlier this year, I can't seem to shake the fact that VMA voters seem to have a soft spot for the underdog, which is why my first pick is Tyler, the Creator. Of course, I can't overlook the fact that Katy Perry has never won a VMA (she's definitely the Susan Lucci of the awards), so I'm making her my alternate pick. Remember, folks, you heard it here first. Sort of.
The 28th annual MTV Video Music Awards will air live Sunday from Los Angeles at 9 p.m. ET/PT, following the Selena Gomez-hosted pre-show at 8. See the list of nominees, revisit last year's highlights and vote for your favorites in the general categories by visiting VMA.MTV.com.
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